Finance

Why there Will NOT be a 2021 Stock Market Crash

why-there-will-not-be-a-2021-stock-market-crash



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Will there be a stock market crash in 2021 or is it a clear runway for higher stock prices? I’ll cover both cases and show you why stocks will not crash next year but why that doesn’t mean you can invest blindly. Then I’ll reveal the investing strategy I’m using to profit from the short-term and longer-term direction of the stock market.

One of the biggest questions of the year has been, when will the stock market crash? The economy is nowhere near as strong as it was last year, we still have a pandemic raging, and yet stocks continue to reach record highs. How is it possible? Is it a stock market bubble just waiting to pop?

Stocks are undeniably more expensive than the long-term PE ratio but there are reasons to believe the market can keep running higher. Despite 10+ million unemployed, more than 94% of the workforce is still employed and the saving rate has jumped to 13.6% – higher than any time in decades. You’ve also got low interest rates propping up stock prices, pushing investors into risk assets from treasuries and bonds.

The stock market is a forward-pricing machine. The collective stock trading of all investors tries to come to a conclusion on where earnings will be and what the economy will look like in six months to a year out. That means the market won’t look exactly like the current economy but should follow the general trend.

Of course, the stock market isn’t always right and that’s when we get a stock crash.

But is a market crash waiting for us in 2021? Are we in for a bear market or just a bull market correction?

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Joseph Hogue, CFA spent nearly a decade as an investment analyst for institutional firms and banks. He now helps people understand their financial lives through debt payoff strategies, investing and ways to save more money. He has appeared on Bloomberg and on sites like CNBC and Morningstar. He holds the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation and is a veteran of the Marine Corps.

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Robert Dunfee

32 Comments

  1. Let's Talk Money! with Joseph Hogue, CFA
    July 21, 2021 at 5:16 pm

    🤑 Get The Daily Bow-Tie – my FREE daily email newsletter sharing market updates, trends and the most important news! Market Updates for the Smart Investor! https://mystockmarketbasics.com/dailybowtie

  2. Kathy Bradford
    July 21, 2021 at 5:16 pm

    Everyone is supporting the theory of a market crash but the markets are always proving the masses wrong. My guess if its gonna happen the market will probably shoot up. And if the Dow hits 40k? on its way up more investors jumping in. And then there will be a big correction. Then volatility we be nuts, causing huge losses and huge gains. Gonna be a crazy 2021.

  3. Renaldas R
    July 21, 2021 at 5:16 pm

    so many gurus calling a stock market crash 2021 some even this month…
    Stock market cant crash litterely in 2021 or covid period. Goverment wont allow to economics through out the world is so bad i never seen like this before. Still stock market who knows how this is thriving understand this cant go tits up use it fox buy call leaps and sell calls against it.

  4. Casey Schletz
    July 21, 2021 at 5:16 pm

    So what happens when the FED prints Trillions of dollars to inflate the stockmarket, to give the appearance of stability and growth, but in reality those businesses are actually barely holding on by a thread? That's 19% of the current publicly traded companies in the United States, which will be bankrupt within the first 6 months of 2021. Then those stocks go to zero….. 20% of the publicly traded companies stocks will go to zero. Once that happens, the stock's across the board will be liquidated within a week losing 90% of their value. Those companies wont be coming back. Those jobs wont be coming back. We are in the largest bubble in human history. Such an idiot.

  5. Lexiemae P
    July 21, 2021 at 5:16 pm

    No stock market crash this year. The only time I won't have any money in the market is mid march to mid april. I will swing trade during the time. Outside of that…I'm going back in

  6. Peter Pagh
    July 21, 2021 at 5:16 pm

    A bit of a wild theory; but have anyone ever thought about FEDs injecting amounts of unreported USD into the market? The incitement to do so is obvious and I think its fair to believe these men of power believe that the goal justifies the means…

  7. Mr. M
    July 21, 2021 at 5:16 pm

    they keep printing money and US still the Reserve currency, of course stock market is going to go up. Is it really sustainable, though? Diversify, like gold, bit coin, etc. in addition to high growth technology stocks on companies that are already profitable (like Tesla, Square, etc.).

  8. LuzLuz Cat
    July 21, 2021 at 5:16 pm

    Best best channel!

  9. Frenetic321
    July 21, 2021 at 5:16 pm

    Would a correction be similar to the March, 2020 drop?

  10. John K
    July 21, 2021 at 5:16 pm

    Woah really threw me off without a bowtie

  11. Robert C Lynch
    July 21, 2021 at 5:16 pm

    Hello all, just wanted to take a minute to wish you all a very merry Christmas and a happy year, most of all good health!
    These days people don't spend much time or thought on some personal words to their friends, they just copy and paste some random shit and send it on.
    So, after all we've been though together this year I want to thank you for your friendship and wish you a happy 2018!
    You are the best gymnastics group anyone could ask for.
    Best wishes, Helen

  12. State of Survival
    July 21, 2021 at 5:16 pm

    What's wrong with saving money? Obviously people aren't saving enough so why are you so upset?

  13. Benjamin Miller
    July 21, 2021 at 5:16 pm

    If you are not willing to own a stock for 10 years do not even think of owning it for 10 minutes. – Warren Buffet.

  14. Seth Tegler
    July 21, 2021 at 5:16 pm

    About half of this new stimulus is made up of the unused portion from the first stimulus. Why is no one pointing this out? The stockmarket is heavily manipulated. The ones with the power will swing how they want it when they want it.

  15. Jason Ziruk
    July 21, 2021 at 5:16 pm

    yes- There will be a crash–and soon–just watch.

  16. Laura Chabera
    July 21, 2021 at 5:16 pm

    Awesome 👍 I love ya thank you for this …..

  17. Timmy
    July 21, 2021 at 5:16 pm

    Regarding that stimulus. I looked into this latest bill, it’s an absolute mess.

    There is not a lot of money. I don’t expect a huge market crash but I do see a crash coming within six months. Treasuries are continuing to creep up. Almost at 1.

  18. Ryan Hendrix
    July 21, 2021 at 5:16 pm

    Wondering why uou show your stock card without regi. But it hasnt changed for me when i check it

  19. Private Private
    July 21, 2021 at 5:16 pm

    .. wanna bet?
    You will be deleted this video in next few months

  20. Ernest reed
    July 21, 2021 at 5:16 pm

    New subscriber thank you for educating us newbies who have ventured into this investing game.

  21. michael mortela
    July 21, 2021 at 5:16 pm

    Hey Joseph I was wondering will you cover the wheel strategy on your channel?

  22. Michael Jason
    July 21, 2021 at 5:16 pm

    Because theres still time for it to happen in 2020?

  23. Annie Oeth
    July 21, 2021 at 5:16 pm

    Back in the day, people saved more because interest rates were higher. It paid to save.

  24. joel chaky
    July 21, 2021 at 5:16 pm

    Hello Joseph I have a thought and a question, if you don’t mind. First of all, you mentioned that personal savings is very high right now for America relative to past behavior. However, it is important to remember that economists consider stock market investing as a part of savings. If you’re over 26, twice in your adult life you’ve seen awful recessions that absolutely crush jobs and income. So when we discuss savings rates I personally wonder what percentage of that savings actually is people either hoarding money in banks or some other investment because we fully expect in 9-10 years to lose our jobs. Again. Saving and spending is a learned behavior and the burned hand teaches best. While there will be some release of pent of spending and consumption I also believe that there is going to be more savings and planning because there’s no reason to think the rug won’t be pulled from under us in 2029.

    I would like some clarification if you don’t mind sharing- you have a late January 2021 straddle or are you working a late January 2022 straddle. And on SPY? Options profit calculator wants 10 and 13 point moves by dec 31 to make those profitable.

    As always, thank you for your time and thoughts.

  25. Michael Baker
    July 21, 2021 at 5:16 pm

    excellent and informatic vid, thank you

  26. The Icelandic Investor
    July 21, 2021 at 5:16 pm

    Only Youtuber saying not a crash 😅

  27. Adrinopaulindromeus
    July 21, 2021 at 5:16 pm

    Two big factors that will lead to a massive correction– 1) The new administration will raise corporate taxes and 2) Do away with the wholesale de-regulation from the last 4 years. All of these will be great for economy and the society in the long run but bad for stocks in the short term.

  28. LuigiFan1305
    July 21, 2021 at 5:16 pm

    I have $20k saved up and ready to go when the market crashes.. Stocks values are way too high and the feds are gaming the market way too much right now. Hopefully the prices drop the normal levels soon so I can get into the wishlist stocks next year 🤞

  29. Neoquaker1
    July 21, 2021 at 5:16 pm

    At this point most people know the govt will do anything to support the stock market. Thats why I think there will never be another crash like in March 2020.

  30. Welcome to ClownWorld
    July 21, 2021 at 5:16 pm

    Uh huh, "The daily bowtie".

    Shameless pimping, i like it! Finally something useful coming to my email.

  31. 混吃等死Woody
    July 21, 2021 at 5:16 pm

    Too many cash flow around and has to go somewhere

  32. Matthew Pozega
    July 21, 2021 at 5:16 pm

    Amherst Ohio